It will come as no surprise to anyone that I do not support Bibi Netanyahu. I do not support the Likud party which he heads and I have never supported any party of the right in Israel. I have never supported any party other than the one of which I am a member: Meretz.
But - whatever my politics, I can't help but be impressed at Bibi's campaign strategy for this election. There is no doubt in my mind that Likud will win the election, despite my earlier optimism that we might finally have all the ingredients for a surprise. Let me explain. First - what were the perfect ingredients for a shock left-win.
1) The Disintegration of the right: Likud lost Kahlon, who is attempting to float to the middle. They failed to resurrect the Yisrael Beiteinu/Likud alliance. Shas lost Yishai, and they looked in tatters. Bennett's rising star was taking people from the traditional right - it looked like we might have a situation that the right would still have over 70 seats but the likud would not be the largest party. Because...
2) Somehow, the left defied history and managed to get its act in order. Most people have seen through Yesh Atid and they are expected to lose out in the polls - hopefully, many of those voters will return to their traditional home on the center left. At the same time, Buzi and Livni have managed to come together, understanding, that at least pragmatically they are better together. They gain the traditional Labour vote and attract a few from the centre who are made to feel a little easier about voting left because of a new name for the party and the face of Tzipi.
So, things were looking good.
And the polls were even predicting that the "Zionist Camp" could pull it off. It could be the reverse of 77, with Kahlon as the new Da"sh.
But no. It won't happen. And I think it is partly due to Bibi's political genius.
I am sure the PR campaign is not his idea directly, but it clearly is imbued with his spirit. This is absolutely his style - at the moment of truth, he is actually telling the truth. Admittedly only a small part of the truth. Only the bit which suits him, and only in a partial manner. But he is managing to run a campaign without lying but merely speaking to the heart of the average Israeli. Though I don't support Bibi, he has always been able to feel the pulse of "middle Israel" and respond to it. He has done it again.
His whole campaign is focused on the fears of Israelis. Real fears. This is political magic. It may be bad, in a moral sense, but it is effective.
At one and the same time, Bibi is managing to use his name/face recognition as a soothing force (ignoring the fact that he has overseen what most people see as a disastrous time for the Israeli state as a whole), and he is managing to play into everyone's worst fears about the opposition. He is painting himself as a steady pair of hands and those around him as children. It is quite simply genius. We may not like him, but we can't beat him.
The advert which was banned for using kids was probably the most obvious of the lot, but all the others have had the same consistent message. Only Bibi can be trusted. And that is what Israeli voters care about.
Even though I would never vote for Bibi, the Bibisitter advert was clearly aimed at me - a parent of small children. The simple message - Buzi and Tzipi can't be trusted with "our home" (the state) or our kids. Playing into the prevailing media sense that Buzi doesn't know what he's doing and has no governing experience and playing off the fact that Tzipi has jumped from Likud to Kadima to "The Zionist Camp", Bibi makes a strong case that a vote for them is a vote for instability.
The final plank of the Bibi/Likud campaign is in fact exactly the same as the central plank of Labour campaign - choose between Bibi and "Us" ("Them"). And that is the point. In a way - though I can't stand Bibi - his campaign is at least a bit more honest than the left's. The left-leaning media has centred on a number of side-issues - his ice-cream fetish, his enjoying the high-life on the public purse, his wife's cruelty to domestic staff, etc, etc, etc, None of these are the important issues - even if some of them do point to serious character flaws and betrayal of the public trust - but bottom line, we are choosing between two different visions of the way forward for this country. And Bibi is right, that the majority of people in this country agree with his vision (perpetual war, focus on security while foolishly allowing the settlers to undermine it, refusal to think about peace with an enemy, etc).
Bibi will win the election. Why? Because the left in Israel have not made our case well enough. We HAVE been too busy picking up on the small things and have failed to make people understand the basic truth - the settlements weaken security. There is no path to real security without peace. There is no path to peace without negotiations. And there is no path to peace without relating to the primary concerns of the Palestinians.
Oh well, maybe next time.
